Yuav Lej Li Cas Beta (nrog Duab)

Cov txheej txheem:

Yuav Lej Li Cas Beta (nrog Duab)
Yuav Lej Li Cas Beta (nrog Duab)

Video: Yuav Lej Li Cas Beta (nrog Duab)

Video: Yuav Lej Li Cas Beta (nrog Duab)
Video: Nkauj Ntseeg 2023 | "Vajtswv Txoj Kev Txiav Txim Yeej Raug Nthuav Tawm Puv Npo Lawm" | Gospel Choir 2024, Lub peb hlis ntuj
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Beta yog qhov hloov pauv lossis muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam tshwj xeeb rau qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm tag nrho cov khoom lag luam. Beta yog qhov taw qhia ntawm kev pheej hmoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam tshwj xeeb, thiab nws tau siv los ntsuas nws qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev xa rov qab. Beta yog ib qho ntawm cov hauv paus uas cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas txiav txim siab thaum xaiv cov khoom lag luam rau lawv cov peev txheej, nrog rau tus nqi-rau-cov nyiaj tau los sib piv, cov tswv cuab cov khoom lag luam sib luag, nuj nqis-rau-sib npaug sib luag, thiab ntau yam ntxiv.

Cov kauj ruam

Beta Tshuab xam zauv

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Image

Beta Tshuab xam zauv

Ntu 1 ntawm 4: Xam Beta Siv Qhov Sib Piv Yooj Yim

Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 1
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 1

Kauj Ruam 1. Nrhiav tus nqi uas tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo

Qhov no yog tus nqi rov qab uas cov tub ua lag luam tuaj yeem xav tau ntawm kev nqis peev uas nws lossis nws cov nyiaj tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo, xws li Asmeskas Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag rau kev nqis peev hauv Asmeskas duas thiab German Tsoom Fwv Cov Nqi rau kev nqis peev uas ua lag luam hauv euro. Daim duab no ib txwm qhia ua feem pua.

Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 2
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 2

Kauj Ruam 2. Txiav txim siab qhov feem ntawm kev xa rov qab rau cov khoom lag luam thiab rau kev ua lag luam lossis qhov tsim nyog ntsuas

Cov nuj nqis no kuj tau hais tawm ua feem pua. Feem ntau tus nqi rov qab yog xam ntau lub hlis.

Ib qho lossis ob qho ntawm cov txiaj ntsig no tuaj yeem ua rau tsis zoo, txhais tau tias kev nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam lossis cov lag luam (qhov ntsuas) tag nrho yuav txhais tau tias poob thaum lub sijhawm. Yog tias tsuas yog ib ntawm ob tus lej tsis zoo, beta yuav tsis zoo

Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 3
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 3

Kauj Ruam 3. Tshem tawm qhov kev pheej hmoo tsis pub dawb los ntawm cov khoom lag luam tus nqi xa rov qab

Yog tias cov khoom lag luam tus nqi rov qab yog 7%thiab qhov tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo yog 2%, qhov sib txawv yuav yog 5%.

Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 4
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 4

Kauj Ruam 4. Tshem tus nqi uas tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo los ntawm kev ua lag luam (lossis ntsuas) tus nqi rov qab los

Yog tias kev ua lag luam lossis ntsuas tus nqi rov qab yog 8%thiab qhov tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo yog ntxiv 2%, qhov sib txawv yuav yog 6%.

Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 5
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 5

Kauj Ruam 5. Sib faib thawj qhov sib txawv saum toj no los ntawm qhov sib txawv thib ob saum toj no

Cov feem no yog tus lej beta, feem ntau qhia raws li tus lej lej. Hauv qhov piv txwv saum toj no, beta yuav yog 5 faib los ntawm 6, lossis 0.833.

  • Qhov beta ntawm kev ua lag luam nws tus kheej (lossis qhov ntsuas tsim nyog) yog los ntawm lub ntsiab lus 1.0, raws li kev ua lag luam tau muab piv rau nws tus kheej, thiab txhua tus lej (tshwj tsis yog xoom) faib los ntawm nws tus kheej sib npaug 1. Beta ntawm tsawg dua 1 txhais tau tias cov khoom lag luam yog tsawg dua qhov hloov pauv ntau dua li kev ua lag luam tag nrho, thaum beta ntau dua 1 txhais tau tias cov khoom lag luam hloov pauv ntau dua li kev ua lag luam tag nrho. Tus nqi beta tuaj yeem tsawg dua xoom, txhais tau tias cov khoom lag luam poob nyiaj thaum lub khw muag khoom tag nrho tau txais (muaj feem ntau) lossis cov khoom tau nce thaum lub khw muag khoom tag nrho poob nyiaj (tsawg dua).
  • Thaum xam beta, nws yog ib qho, txawm hais tias tsis xav tau, siv tus lej sawv cev ntawm kev ua lag luam uas cov lag luam ua lag luam. Txog Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam, S & P 500 yog qhov ntsuas feem ntau siv, txawm hais tias kev tshuaj xyuas ntawm cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem ua haujlwm tau zoo dua los ntawm kev sib piv nws tawm tsam Dow Jones Industrial Average. Muaj ob peb lwm qhov kev ntsuas uas tuaj yeem siv tau tsim nyog. Txog cov khoom lag luam uas muag thoob ntiaj teb, MSCI EAFE (sawv cev rau Europe, Australia, thiab Far East) yog tus sawv cev tsim nyog ntsuas.

Ntu 2 ntawm 4: Siv Beta los Txiav Txim Tus Nqi Tus Nqi Rov Qab

Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 6
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 6

Kauj Ruam 1. Nrhiav tus nqi uas tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo

Qhov no yog tus nqi tib yam li tau piav qhia saum toj no hauv qab "Xam Beta rau Tshuag." Rau ntu no, peb yuav siv tus piv txwv zoo ib yam ntawm 2 feem pua, raws li siv saum toj no.

Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 7
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 7

Kauj Ruam 2. Txiav txim siab tus nqi xa rov qab rau kev ua lag luam lossis nws tus lej sawv cev

Hauv qhov piv txwv no, peb yuav siv tib 8 feem pua daim duab, raws li siv saum toj no.

Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 8
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 8

Kauj Ruam 3. Muab tus nqi beta sib txawv los ntawm qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi lag luam ntawm kev xa rov qab thiab tus nqi tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo

Rau qhov piv txwv no, peb yuav siv tus nqi beta ntawm 1.5. Siv 2 feem pua rau tus nqi tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo thiab 8 feem pua rau kev lag luam tus nqi rov qab, qhov no ua haujlwm rau 8 - 2, lossis 6 feem pua. Sib tw los ntawm beta ntawm 1.5, qhov no ua rau 9 feem pua.

Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 9
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 9

Kauj Ruam 4. Ntxiv qhov tshwm sim rau qhov tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo

Qhov no ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig ntawm 11 feem pua, uas yog cov khoom lag luam cia siab tias yuav rov qab los.

Qhov siab dua tus nqi beta rau cov khoom lag luam, qhov siab dua nws qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev xa rov qab yuav yog. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov txiaj ntsig siab dua ntawm kev xa rov qab yog ua ke nrog kev pheej hmoo nce ntxiv, ua rau nws tsim nyog los saib cov khoom lag luam lwm yam hauv paus ntsiab lus ua ntej txiav txim siab seb nws puas yuav yog ib feem ntawm cov peev txheej peev

Ntu 3 ntawm 4: Siv Excel Cov Duab los txiav txim siab Beta

Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 10
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 10

Kauj Ruam 1. Ua peb nqe kab hauv Excel

Thawj kab ntawv yuav yog koj kab hnub tim. Hauv kab ntawv thib ob, tso tus nqi qis; qhov no yog "kev ua lag luam tag nrho" koj yuav muab piv rau koj beta tiv thaiv. Hauv kab thib peb, tso tus nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam uas koj tab tom sim suav beta.

Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 11
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 11

Kauj ruam 2. Sau koj cov ntaub ntawv ntsiab lus rau hauv daim ntawv nthuav qhia

Sim pib nrog ib hlis ib hlis. Xaiv hnub tim - piv txwv li, thaum pib lossis xaus rau lub hlis - thiab sau tus nqi sib xws rau lub khw lag luam ntsuas (sim siv S&P 500) thiab tom qab ntawv tus nqi rau hnub ntawd. Sim xaiv 15 lossis 30 hnub tsis ntev los no, tej zaum txuas ntxiv ib xyoos lossis ob xyoos dhau los. Nco tseg tus nqi ntsuas thiab tus nqi khoom lag luam rau txhua hnub.

Lub sijhawm ntev dua uas koj xaiv, qhov tseeb dua koj qhov kev suav beta yuav dhau los. Keeb kwm beta hloov pauv raws li koj saib xyuas ob qho khoom lag luam thiab qhov ntsuas tau ntev dua

Xeem Beta Kauj Ruam 12
Xeem Beta Kauj Ruam 12

Kauj Ruam 3. Tsim ob kab rov qab rau sab xis ntawm koj tus nqi kab

Ib kem yuav yog rau qhov rov qab los ntawm qhov ntsuas; kab ntawv thib ob yuav yog qhov rov qab los ntawm cov khoom lag luam. Koj yuav siv tus lej Excel txhawm rau txiav txim siab rov qab los, uas koj yuav kawm hauv cov theem hauv qab no.

Xeem Beta Kauj Ruam 13
Xeem Beta Kauj Ruam 13

Kauj Ruam 4. Pib xam cov nyiaj rov qab rau cov khoom lag luam ntsuas

Hauv kab ntawv thib ob ntawm koj kab ntawv xa rov qab, ntaus tus "=" (kos npe sib npaug). Nrog koj tus cursor, nyem lub xov tooj thib ob hauv koj kab ntawv cim, ntaus tus "-" (rho tawm kos npe), thiab tom qab ntawd nyem rau thawj lub xov tooj ntawm koj kab ntawv ntsuas. Tom ntej no, ntaus tus "/" ("faib los ntawm" kos npe), thiab tom qab ntawd nyem rau ntawm thawj lub xovtooj ntawm koj kab ntawv ntsuas dua. Ntaus "Rov Qab" lossis "Enter."

  • Txij li rov qab los yog kev suav nrog lub sijhawm, koj yuav tsis tso dab tsi rau hauv koj thawj lub xov tooj; tso nws tseg. Koj xav tau tsawg kawg yog ob lub ntsiab lus cov ntsiab lus los xam cov nyiaj rov qab, uas yog vim li cas koj thiaj yuav pib ntawm lub xov tooj thib ob ntawm koj kab ntawv rov qab los.
  • Koj ua dab tsi yog rho tawm tus nqi tam sim no los ntawm tus nqi qub thiab tom qab ntawd faib cov txiaj ntsig los ntawm tus nqi qub. Qhov no tsuas yog muab koj feem pua ntawm kev poob lossis nce rau lub sijhawm ntawd.
  • Koj qhov kev sib npaug rau kab rov qab yuav zoo ib yam li no: = (B4-B3)/B3
Xeem Beta Kauj Ruam 14
Xeem Beta Kauj Ruam 14

Kauj Ruam 5. Siv daim ntawv muaj nuj nqi los rov ua cov txheej txheem no rau tag nrho cov ntsiab lus cov ntaub ntawv hauv koj tus lej cim nqe

Ua qhov no los ntawm kev nyem rau ntawm lub xwmfab me me hauv qab txoj cai ntawm koj qhov ntsuas-rov qab ntawm tes thiab rub nws mus rau hauv qab-feem ntau cov ntaub ntawv taw tes. Dab tsi koj tab tom ua yog nug Excel kom rov ua cov qauv qub (saum toj no) rau txhua cov ntaub ntawv taw tes.

Xeem Beta Kauj Ruam 15
Xeem Beta Kauj Ruam 15

Kauj Ruam 6. Rov ua cov txheej txheem qub no los xam cov nyiaj rov qab, lub sijhawm no rau cov khoom lag luam ib leeg tsis yog qhov ntsuas

Tom qab ua tiav, koj yuav tsum muaj ob kab ntawv, ua qauv raws li feem pua, uas teev cov khoom xa rov qab rau ob qho khoom lag luam thiab tus kheej cov khoom lag luam.

Xeem Beta Kauj Ruam 16
Xeem Beta Kauj Ruam 16

Kauj Ruam 7. Npaj cov ntaub ntawv hauv kab ntawv

Nyeem tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv hauv ob kab rov qab thiab ntaus lub cim kab kos hauv Excel. Xaiv daim phiaj tawg los ntawm cov npe xaiv. Sau X-axis nrog lub npe ntawm qhov ntsuas koj siv (piv txwv li S&P 500) thiab Y-axis nrog lub npe ntawm cov khoom lag luam uas koj siv.

Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 17
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 17

Kauj Ruam 8. Ntxiv ib txoj kab rau koj daim ntawv qhia

Koj tuaj yeem ua qhov no los ntawm kev xaiv cov txheej txheem txheej txheem hauv cov qauv tshiab ntawm Excel lossis los ntawm kev pom nws tus kheej los ntawm txhaj rau Daim Ntawv → Ntxiv Trendline. Nco ntsoov tso saib qhov sib npaug ntawm daim duab, nrog rau R2 tus nqi.

  • Xaiv txoj kab kev sib tw, tsis yog polynomial lossis txav nruab nrab.
  • Qhia qhov sib npaug ntawm daim duab, nrog rau R2 tus nqi, yuav nyob ntawm seb Excel version koj muaj. Cov ntawv tshiab yuav cia koj teeb kab zauv thiab R2 tus nqi los ntawm txhaj rau Daim Ntawv Cuam Tshuam Cuam Tshuam thiab nrhiav qhov sib npaug R2 tus nqi txheej txheem.
  • Hauv cov khoos phis tawj qub ntawm Excel, mus rau Kab Lus → Ntxiv Trendline → Options. Tom qab ntawv khij ob lub npov ib sab ntawm "Zaub sib npaug ntawm daim duab" thiab "Zaub R2 tus nqi ntawm daim ntawv, "feem.
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 18
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 18

Kauj Ruam 9. Nrhiav tus coefficient rau tus "x" tus nqi hauv kab zauv ntawm cov kab

Koj txoj kab zauv kab zauv yuav sau rau hauv daim ntawv y = βx + a. Qhov sib npaug ntawm tus nqi x yog koj qhov beta.

Qhov R2 tus nqi yog kev sib raug zoo ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom lag luam rov qab mus rau qhov sib txawv ntawm kev rov ua lag luam tag nrho. Ib tus lej loj,.869 piv txwv, qhia txog qhov sib txawv sib txawv ntawm ob. Tus lej tsawg,.253 piv txwv, qhia qhov sib txawv me ntsis ntawm ob.

Ntu 4 ntawm 4: Ua Kev Pom Zoo ntawm Beta

Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 19
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 19

Kauj Ruam 1. Paub yuav txhais li cas beta

Beta yog qhov kev pheej hmoo, txheeb ze rau kev ua lag luam tag nrho, cov tub ua lag luam xav tias los ntawm tus tswv tshwj xeeb. Tias yog vim li cas koj yuav tsum sib piv cov nyiaj rov qab ntawm ib qho khoom lag luam tawm tsam qhov rov qab los ntawm qhov ntsuas. Qhov ntsuas yog qhov ntsuas tawm tsam qhov kev txiav txim siab cov khoom lag luam. Qhov pheej hmoo ntawm qhov ntsuas tau raug kho ntawm 1. A beta ntawm qis dua 1 txhais tau tias cov khoom lag luam muaj kev pheej hmoo tsawg dua li qhov ntsuas uas nws tau sib piv. Qhov beta siab dua 1 txhais tau tias cov khoom muaj kev pheej hmoo ntau dua li qhov ntsuas uas nws tau muab piv rau.

  • Ua qhov piv txwv no: Hais tias beta ntawm Gino's Germ Exterminator tau xam ntawm.5. Piv rau S&P 500, tus qauv uas Gino tau muab piv, nws yog ib nrab uas muaj kev pheej hmoo. Yog tias S&P nqis qis dua 10%, Gino tus nqi yuav zoo li yuav poob qis tsuas yog 5%.
  • Raws li lwm qhov piv txwv, xav txog tias Frank Txoj Haujlwm Pabcuam ศพ muaj beta ntawm 1.5 thaum piv rau S&P. Yog tias S&P poob 10%, cia siab tias Frank tus nqi yuav poob ntau dua li S&P, lossis kwv yees li 15%.
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 20
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 20

Kauj Ruam 2. Paub tias kev pheej hmoo feem ntau cuam tshuam txog kev rov qab los

Muaj kev pheej hmoo siab, nqi zog siab; pheej hmoo tsawg, nqi zog tsawg. Ib qho khoom lag luam nrog qis beta yuav tsis poob ntau npaum li S & P thaum nws poob, tab sis nws yuav tsis nce ntau npaum li S&P thaum nws tshaj tawm. Ntawm qhov tod tes, cov khoom lag luam nrog beta ntau dua 1 yuav poob ntau dua li S&P thaum nws ntog tab sis tseem yuav tau txais ntau dua li S&P thaum nws tshaj tawm cov txiaj ntsig.

Piv txwv li, ua piv txwv Vermerer's Venom Extraction muaj beta ntawm.5. Thaum cov khoom lag luam dhia 30%, Vermerer tsuas yog nce 15%. Tab sis thaum cov khoom lag luam poob 30%, Vermerer poob qis tsuas yog 15%

Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 21
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 21

Kauj Ruam 3. Cia siab tias cov khoom lag luam nrog beta ntawm 1 yuav txav mus rau hauv lockstep nrog kev ua lag luam

Yog tias koj ua koj qhov kev suav beta thiab nrhiav pom cov khoom lag luam uas koj tab tom tshuaj xyuas muaj beta ntawm 1, nws yuav tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo ntau dua lossis tsawg dua li qhov ntsuas koj siv los ua tus qauv ntsuas. Kev ua lag luam nce 2%, koj cov khoom lag luam nce 2%; kev lag luam poob 8%, koj cov khoom lag luam poob 8%.

Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 22
Xam Beta Kauj Ruam 22

Kauj Ruam 4. Muab ob qho khoom lag luam siab thiab qis-beta rau hauv koj cov ntaub ntawv rau kev faib tawm kom txaus

Kev sib xyaw zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam siab thiab qis-beta yuav pab koj huab cua txhua qhov kev poob qis uas kev lag luam tshwm sim. Tau kawg, vim tias cov khoom lag luam qis-beta feem ntau ua tsis tau zoo raws li kev ua lag luam tag nrho thaum lub khw muag nyuj, kev sib xyaw zoo ntawm betas tseem yuav txhais tau tias koj yuav tsis ntsib qhov siab tshaj ntawm qhov siab thaum lub sijhawm zoo.

Xeem Beta Kauj Ruam 23
Xeem Beta Kauj Ruam 23

Kauj Ruam 5. Nkag siab tias, zoo li feem ntau cov cuab yeej twv ua ntej nyiaj txiag, beta tsis tuaj yeem ntseeg tau qhov kev cia siab yav tom ntej

Beta tsuas yog ntsuas qhov kev hloov pauv yav dhau los ntawm cov khoom lag luam. Peb yuav xav npaj qhov kev hloov pauv mus rau yav tom ntej, tab sis qhov ntawd yuav tsis ua haujlwm tas li. Ib qho khoom lag luam beta tuaj yeem hloov pauv ntau ntawm ib xyoos mus rau lwm xyoo. Tias yog vim li cas nws tsis yog qhov ua tau txaus ntseeg txaus ntseeg txog qhov cuab yeej.

Yees duab - Los ntawm kev siv qhov kev pabcuam no, qee cov ntaub ntawv yuav raug muab qhia rau YouTube

Lub tswv yim

  • Nco tseg tias cov kev xav sib txawv hauv ib puag ncig tej zaum yuav tsis siv, vim tias lub sijhawm siv nyiaj txiag yog "tail hnyav." Qhov tseeb, tus qauv sib txawv thiab lub ntsiab lus rau kev faib tawm hauv qab yuav tsis muaj! Yog li tej zaum kev hloov kho siv quartile kis thiab nruab nrab tsis txhais tau tias thiab cov qauv sib txawv tuaj yeem ua haujlwm.
  • Beta txheeb xyuas qhov hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom lag luam nyob rau lub sijhawm teev tseg, tsis hais txog seb lub khw tau nce lossis nqis qis. Ib yam li lwm cov hauv paus ntsiab lus, kev ua haujlwm yav dhau los nws tshuaj xyuas tsis yog qhov lees paub tias cov khoom lag luam yuav ua tiav yav tom ntej li cas.

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